Results 1 to 4 of 4

Thread: It's Derby Day!!!

  1. #1
    Senior Member Thehorror's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov-2014
    Location
    Louisiana
    Posts
    1,632

    Default It's Derby Day!!!


    Thought I would post my field analysis!

    It will likely rain making the track sloppy. You'll want to watch out for the horses that are used to running on a synthetic track... the rest will have a hard time



    The two top favorites are Bob Baffert's two entries. He's got the best Derby track record in the field. American Pharoah is running as favorite under Espinoza, who also has a great record in the Derby, but Pharoah pulled an outside post. He runs best on the inside going straight to the front, and likely won't handle the dirt in his face very well. Dortmund, on the other hand, has it all. The pedigree of a champion, never lost a race, and has gone 1 1/8 just fine in 1:48 (very good time).


    Todd Pletcher has 3 entries, having scratched his 4th. He is 1/44 for the Derby and I don't expect him to place in the money.


    Firing Line looks promising. He's come in right behind Dortmund twice. He has always placed in the money, but only two wins, and not very many starts. Be interesting to see what he does in Kentucky.


    International Star is another of my favorites. He's running with a relatively unknown jock and trainer, but he's had an outstanding season. Last year was rough, placing 9th in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf... but this is dirt.


    Mubtahiij could make a lot of people mad. He's coming from Saudi Arabia, owned by Sheik Mohammed. He's the only one that's come close to the Derby length, at 1 3/16, in 1:58. A little slow, but it's been done. His maiden races were rough but since he broke it he's been doing well (a horse runs maiden races until they win one). The Emirates are really tough on drugs, so Mubtahiij is running clean unlike the rest of the field. This could help or hinder him. Would love to see him do well to prove a point.


    Frosted has a great record except for the Fountain of Youth (9th) in February. However his times have been a little slow at the greater distances.



    This in mind I've chosen Durtmond, International Star, and Mubtahiij for my early trifecta, but keep watching the odds and see how they behave in the post parade. Especially keep an eye on Firing Line and Frosted. Only other horse I see contending is Upstart. If I had to pick an upset I'd go with War Story.



    Honestly, this is a crappy field. Huge number of rabbits (horses only entered to exhaust the field so another horse can win more easily), and several horses who haven't come in the money since last year (Keen Ice hasn't since his first race at only a mile).

    Havent gotten ten a chance to look at Tale of Verve since he just joined the field this morning, but given that Frammento is far from a contender I don't expect much from either of them.
    "You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." -Winston Churchill

    Current: 4x lobes, left industrial, right helix, right nostril, left conch, 2x diagonal(ish) nipples, right daith, left surface tragus

    Tats: 3 hours, 2 pieces


  2. #2
    Senior Member Thehorror's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov-2014
    Location
    Louisiana
    Posts
    1,632

    Default

    Update! El Kabeir and International Star have scratched, leaving the field at 18 (Tale of Verve did not make the scratch time).

    With the worsening quality of the field I'm beginning to reconsider Pletcher's... But not seriously.

    I think Danzig Moon now has a shot in the dark, but not putting money on him.

    New trifecta is Dortmund, Frosted, and Mubtahiij... Firing Line might make his way in there at some point.

    Weather in Louisville looking decent, no rain for today. This gives everyone a better shot and will quicken the pace, giving the late closers an advantage
    Last edited by Thehorror; 05-02-2015 at 05:45 PM.
    "You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." -Winston Churchill

    Current: 4x lobes, left industrial, right helix, right nostril, left conch, 2x diagonal(ish) nipples, right daith, left surface tragus

    Tats: 3 hours, 2 pieces


  3. #3
    Senior Member julian's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul-2010
    Location
    Hampshire, UK
    Posts
    917

    Default

    For those of us in the UK, the Derby usually refers to the race run at Epsom Downs, and run in June When I was at school, the racecourse was virtually next door, so we had the afternoon off to attend.
    Last edited by julian; 05-02-2015 at 07:00 PM.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Thehorror's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov-2014
    Location
    Louisiana
    Posts
    1,632

    Default

    Oh whoops I forgot other people have other Derbies. Well, it's Kentucky Derby day!!!
    "You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life." -Winston Churchill

    Current: 4x lobes, left industrial, right helix, right nostril, left conch, 2x diagonal(ish) nipples, right daith, left surface tragus

    Tats: 3 hours, 2 pieces


Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •